外媒：预计2024年中国原铝供应过剩

Primary aluminum markets in China are set to continue to witness surplus supply in 2024, as the rate of production would outpace consumption, sources and analysts said.

消息人士和分析师预计：2024年中国原继续呈现供应过剩的局面，因为生产速度将超过消费量。

However, output cuts in Yunnan, China's major aluminum hub, could emerge as a "wild card" in 2024, which could impact total aluminum supply in the case of worsening power shortages that would lead to more capacity curbs, according to industry experts.

然而，据行业专家称，中国主要铝中心云南的减产可能会在2024年成为“不确定因素”。这可能会影响铝供应总量，因为电力短缺加剧，将导致更多的产能限制。

Despite this situation, sources said they expect profit margins of Chinese smelters to remain healthy, as oversupply continues to weigh on domestic alumina prices while rising bauxite imports relieve raw material supply pressure in the domestic market.

尽管存在这种情况，但消息人士表示，他们预计中国冶炼厂的利润率将保持健康状态。因供应过剩继续打压国内氧化铝价格，而铝土矿进口增加缓解了国内市场的原材料供应压力。

The Platts China Domestic Alumina Daily assessment stood at Yuan 3,000/mt ($421/mt) ex-works Shanxi on Dec. 21, about 0.16% higher from the year-ago level. Platts is a part of S&P Global Commodity Insights.

根据普氏能源资讯，12月21日，中国国产氧化铝日估价为3,000元/吨（421美元/吨）山西出厂价，较去年同期上涨约0.16%。

There is limited new capacity set to come on stream in 2024, with established primary aluminum capacity already close to the national capacity ceiling of around 45 million mt/year, sources said.

消息人士称，2024年投产的新产能有限，已建立的原铝产能已经接近全国约4,500万吨/年的产能上限。

Most of the new projects were capacity transfers based on capacity replacement policies or those obtained quotas subjecting to certain special policies.

大多数新项目是基于产能置换政策的产能转移，或者是受某些特殊政策约束的配额。

Russian aluminum is set to dominate China's import markets amid Russia's war with Ukraine, keeping Chinese imports at elevated levels, market sources said. Meanwhile, China's aluminum exports are expected to see a decline due to a slower recovery in overseas demand, they said.

市场消息人士称，在俄罗斯与乌克兰的战争中，俄罗斯铝将主导中国的进口市场，使中国的进口保持在较高水平。与此同时，他们表示，由于海外需求复苏放缓，预计中国铝出口将出现下降。